EGSA Regional Economic Modeling

SCOPE OF WORK

Regional Macroeconomic Modeling Expert

Project	Economic Growth Support Activity
Task No	7294971F00006
Funder	USAID
Location	Indonesia, Jakarta
Position	2 National Expert
Level of Effort	Up to 60 working days for both experts
Expertise	Advanced and up-to-date knowledge on Regional Macroeconomic Modelling
Level	A Senior Consultant (Team Leader level) and a Mid-level Consultant
Report to	PFM Expert

USAID/INDONESIA ECONOMIC GROWTH SUPPORT ACTIVITY (EGSA)

PURPOSE
The overall objectives of this consultancy service are to strengthen technical capacity of Bappenas staff in regional economic planning and evaluation. This will be done through (I) development of a regional macroeconomic forecasting model; (II) training on the utilization of regional macroeconomic forecasting model and policy analysis.

BACKGROUND
DevTech Systems, Inc. (DevTech) is an international consulting firm and small business dedicated to development, with over 30 years of experience providing advisory services and technical assistance to government, private sector, and civil society stakeholders in more than 100 countries. We are a data driven organization that specializes in informing policy making by delivering focused data-driven evidence-based analysis products and services.  DevTech core practice areas include: Economic and Data analysis, Monitoring and Evaluation, Education and Youth Development, Gender and Inclusive Development, and Public Financial Management.

Devtech is implementing USAID funded Economic Growth Support Activity (EGSA) in Indonesia. EGSA enables evidence-based decision making through ongoing analysis linking the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), Journey to Self-Reliance (J2SR), and Government of Indonesia (GOI) priorities and potential USAID/Indonesia assistance under USAID/Indonesia’s next Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS); (ii) increases and improves GOI technical capacity in tax collection, public expenditure, and financial accountability; and (iii) Improves business enabling environment for foreign and domestic business entities.

EGSA seeks two (2) qualified Regional Macroeconomic Modeling experts to develop a macroeconomic forecasting model framework and develop and provide capacity building training and workshops to the staff at Bappenas and Provincial Governments to support of strengthening policy formulation and policy evaluation processes.

SERVICES PROVIDED
The Senior Consultant as a team leader with full support from the mid-level consultant will lead Regional Macroeconomic Modelling team and will work closely with the EGSA-PFM and Bappenas teams to undertake tasks as follows:
·       Develop an updated and improve Regional Macroeconomic Forecasting Model.
·       Develop report and policy analysis on 34 provinces in Indonesia based on the developed model.
·       Develop customized training modules both in Bahasa Indonesia and English that will include manual or guideline to run the model and for updating the database.
·       Deliver two workshops to introduce the Regional Macroeconomic Forecasting Model and run simulation of the model and policy analysis. The workshop will be conducted for three days each.  

DELIVERABLES

·       Development of Inception Report that includes the research design and procedures or process to be utilized for the development of the regional macroeconomic forecasting model.

·       Development of Interim Report that incorporates the mid-period progress report of the development quarterly provincial economic and sectoral growth forecasting model for 34 provinces.
·       Final report for recommendations and policy analysis
·       A Regional Macroeconomic Forecasting Model, including codes/command to develop and update the model using STATA program.
·       Design a customized training module on Regional Macroeconomic Modeling both in English and Bahasa Indonesia languages.
·       Deliver the first workshop for introduction to the Regional Forecasting Macroeconomic Modeling for Bappenas staff
·       Deliver the second workshop for the simulation of the model and policy analysis for provincial government staff.
·       A comprehensive training completion report and a post-training presentation for all workshops.

REQUIREMENTS

·       Extensive experience in modeling and policy analysis using simulation tools and quantitative analysis methods.

·       Must have experience in capacity building and deliver training to civil servants.

·       Excellent writing and communications as evidenced by prior writings

 QUALIFICATIONS
Team leader:

·       Ph.D. from nationally/internationally recognized university in economics, econometrics, or regional economics with an emphasis on macroeconomic analysis and macroeconomic modeling.

·       At least 15 years of experience in economic modeling, policy analysis in the development context.

·       Prior work experience on developing macroeconomic planning models with GOI national agency is preferred.

·       Excellent communications and presentation skills

·       Fluency in English and Bahasa Indonesia, both written and oral

Expert 2:

·       Master’s degree or equivalent from nationally/internationally recognized university in economics, econometrics, or regional economics with an emphasis on macroeconomics analysis and macroeconomics modeling

·       Minimum 5 years of experience in economic modeling, policy analysis in the development context

·       Excellent communications and presentation skills

·       Fluency in English and Bahasa Indonesia both written and oral

·       Prior work experience on developing the macroeconomic planning model the GOI national agency is preferred.

LEVEL OF EFFORT

The experts are each expected to commence services initially for 60 days of work from August – December 2020. 

Please kindly submit your application to rpramudarto@devtechsys.com by COB Thursday 30 July 2020